The news couldn’t be worse. That’s when stocks are the cheapest. Five days from now or five weeks from now they could be a lot cheaper, but we don’t know which or whether. But 5 years from now here is what we see.
The European crisis will have passed its nadir. Barack Obama will no longer be running the United States into the ground. Romney will have turned the country around, unemployment will be dramatically reduced. Paul Ryan’s plan, or one similar to it, will be in place to harness the national deficit. Revenues will be up as the economy improves. The national debt will still be high but concern over it will have lessened because the country will be working again. Consumer and business confidence will return just as they did when Reagan followed Jimmy Carter. Americans will feel proud of their country and their president and not be embarrassed for having elected him.
Wishful thinking? Yes, some of it, but nothing unrealistic.
Wall Street spends too much time projecting the future by looking through the rear view mirror. Politics is taken with a grain of salt as presidents come and go while companies remain flexible, accommodating Washington’s policies. The investment community still thinks the best bet is the assumption that Obama will be re-elected. However, his re-election is quickly becoming more of a possibility than a probability. Chickens should wait until the election. Daredevils can buy now. But stay away from solar panels and windmills.
UPDATE: For the record, the market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial average closed at 12,529.75 on the date of this post.