Gallup says the Presidential race is in a dead heat. No doubt they are correct, but that’s now and now is not November. Pollsters report the present and they record the past. Pollsters shy away from doing something dumb like trying to predict an election. They are smart. I will predict the election.
Barack Obama will go down in a resounding defeat. That’s where I am; here’s how I got there (thanks, Glen). The President has lost some support among voters across the board except for blacks.
1. He has alienated the U.S. Military anew. With timing that would be the envy of Jack Benny, buddy Barack slighted the heroes of the Bin Laden operation by conferring upon himself a metaphorical medal for gallantry in decision making. In doing that he alienated a lot more that just a few Navy Seals.
2. Obama has lost a good piece of the support he had from the Catholic Church. Catholic leaders know he deceived them; parishioners know Obama’s policies are at odds with their beliefs.
3. The Jewish vote is fading fast. Obama got 78% of the Jewish vote in 2008. The latest poll shows Obama at just 61% against Romney.
4. Campaign funding for Obama is falling significantly short, while at the same time money is pouring in at record rates for the Republican candidate.
5. The youth have suffered the most from the high level of unemployment. They know Obama has had 3 ½ years to do something about it but has failed to bring about any visible improvement. He has lost the enthusiastic support that the Democratic candidate customarily gets from young people in a presidential election. Few will switch their vote but many may stay away in droves (thanks, Yogi).
6. Blue collar workers have seen the light. The President, yea even the Democratic Party itself has given up on courting this voting group. These workers have been thrown under the bus and they know it.
7. Core Democratic voters, those who always vote Democratic because it’s always the only thing to do, they will still vote Democratic but only if they vote. Many are very disappointed with Obama but will never voice it. Turn out could be low.
8. Paul Krugman says the election will be very close and Paul Krugman is never right.