Women are different from men. We can all agree on that. They look different, most of them. They act differently and they think differently. These pie charts published by USA TODAY illustrate that women vote differently as well.
Also notable in the charts is the difference between the methods of the two leading pollsters, Gallup and Rasmussen. Gallup polls all registered voters; Rasmussen polls only those more likely to vote. The difference is quite clear in the swing states, the two upper charts at the upper left.
Gallup says the Presidential race is in a dead heat. No doubt they are correct, but that’s now and now is not November. Pollsters report the present and they record the past. Pollsters shy away from doing something dumb like trying to predict an election. They are smart. I will predict the election.
Barack Obama will go down in a resounding defeat. That’s where I am; here’s how I got there (thanks, Glen). The President has lost some support among voters across the board except for blacks.
1. He has alienated the U.S. Military anew. With timing that would be the envy of Jack Benny, buddy Barack slighted the heroes of the Bin Laden operation by conferring upon himself a metaphorical medal for gallantry in decision making. In doing that he alienated a lot more that just a few Navy Seals.
2. Obama has lost a good piece of the support he had from the Catholic Church. Catholic leaders know he deceived them; parishioners know Obama’s policies are at odds with their beliefs.
3. The Jewish vote is fading fast. Obama got 78% of the Jewish vote in 2008. The latest poll shows Obama at just 61% against Romney.
4. Campaign funding for Obama is falling significantly short, while at the same time money is pouring in at record rates for the Republican candidate.
5. The youth have suffered the most from the high level of unemployment. They know Obama has had 3 ½ years to do something about it but has failed to bring about any visible improvement. He has lost the enthusiastic support that the Democratic candidate customarily gets from young people in a presidential election. Few will switch their vote but many may stay away in droves (thanks, Yogi).
6. Blue collar workers have seen the light. The President, yea even the Democratic Party itself has given up on courting this voting group. These workers have been thrown under the bus and they know it.
7. Core Democratic voters, those who always vote Democratic because it’s always the only thing to do, they will still vote Democratic but only if they vote. Many are very disappointed with Obama but will never voice it. Turn out could be low.
8. Paul Krugman says the election will be very close and Paul Krugman is never right.
Results of a Gallup poll released today show that a “record-high 81% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the country is being governed…”.
What can we infer from that? First, a large number of people who voted for Obama are sorely disappointed. That’s the price they paid, the price we all paid, for their not doing their homework. Admittedly, it was a task that required some self study, not one easily resolved by watching the evening news and reading an occasional newspaper. However, when a candidate for President of the United States launches his political career from the home of a virulent unrepentant anti-American terrorist and takes as his beloved mentor and spiritual leader a black liberation theologist like Jeremiah Wright, doesn’t that call for doing some homework before voting for him?
Secondly, can we infer that the President has little chance of winning a second term? No we cannot. We might if the election were to be this November rather than the next. A year and a month are like an eternity in politics. Community organizers know how to work up a crowd and this community organizer was very good at his job. His tools are class warfare, stoking envy, channeling rage, appealing to liberal guilt and of course, race. His techniques are covered in Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals.
That is a formidable arsenal. Barack Obama wants what he sincerely thinks is best for his own people and for his vision of a better America. He is a deeply dedicated man. The President is a powerful fundraiser and a strong campaigner. Never discount such a person.
A CBS poll asked the public whether deficits should be reduced by raising taxes or lowering spending. The percentage response was 77 to 9 in favor of lowering spending with another 9% saying do both. But there’s a rub.
The poll made 10 suggestions for specific areas to cut and asked would you be willing or unwilling to cut in each. The results revealed the public’s attitude to be, yes, cut spending but NIMBY (Not In My Benefits Y’know).
Approval of Congress has increased 20% since Gallup’s last poll taken in December. The new Congress was only 10 days old when the poll was taken so the showing must be more an expression of hope than one of accomplishment. The Satisfaction Level of how things are going generally in the country rose from 17 to 19 percent, but that was not enough to break the steady downward trend line from 27 percent last May.
STATE of the UNION ADDRESS
The address this year promises to be a very interesting one. It may even provide a little healing. Certainly there will be no insults directed at the Supreme Court and we hope the President will not say anything so outrageous that a member of Congress cannot audibly control his furor.
Democratic Sen. Mark Udall has proposed a welcome change from tradition. Congressional seating is first come first served; members, however, have always elected to divide themselves by sitting strictly on their own side of the infamous aisle. Sen. Udall proposes that they intermingle this time. It was great fun to watch one side of the chamber frown while the other side clapped as the President spoke. We will happily forgo a little amusement for the benefit some unification. It remains to be seen how many of either party will actually cross the dreaded aisle.